Poll Analysis: The Trend in Obama v. McCain

Obama McCain 40.5% probability of winning 58.3% probability of winning Mean of 263 electoral votes Mean of 275 electoral votes Yesterday Sen. Barack Obama had about a 40% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. There are three new polls released today that weigh in on the race. Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 4,045 times (plus the 129 ties), and McCain wins 5,826 times. Obama has a crept upward to a 40.5% (plus 1.3% for ties) probability of beat

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